RUBBER PRICES UNLIKELY TO INCREASE UNTIL JANUARY 2023 

According to the General Department of Customs, in September, Vietnam exported about 210,000 tons of rubber products, worth 305 million USD, down 4.2% in volume and 8.1% in value compared to the previous month.

However, compared to the same period last year, rubber exports increased by 16% in volume and 2% in value. The average export price in September reached $1,455 per ton, down 4% month on month and down 12.1% over the same period last year.

Accumulating 9 months, rubber exports reached about 1.41 million tons, worth 2.32 billion USD, up 9.7% in volume and 7.8% in value over the same period in 2021.

According to the latest data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), a mixture of natural and synthetic rubber (HS: 400280), Latex, SVR 3L, SVR 10, RSS3, SVR CV60, etc., are the main export products of Vietnam.

In which, the mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber is the most exported item, accounting for 56.4% of the country's total rubber exports, with 677,860 tons, worth nearly 1.14 billion USD. , down 1.3% in volume, but up 1.1% in value over the same period last year.

Many groups of exported rubber products also increased in both volume and value over the same period last year such as: Synthetic rubber, SVR20, Latex, Skim block, SVR10, regenerated rubber, RSS3, SVR3L, etc.

China is the largest export market, accounting for 99.7% of the country's total export of mixed natural and synthetic rubber, with 676,110 tons, worth 1.13 billion USD, down 1.1. % in volume, but increased by 1.3% in value over the same period last year.

In September, the price of rubber fluctuates

According to the Import-Export Department, in September, the price of raw rubber latex across the country continued to decrease. In Binh Phuoc, raw rubber latex was purchased by Phu Rieng Rubber Company at the price of 260-270 VND/TCS, down 15 VND/TCS compared to the end of last month.

In Binh Duong, the purchasing price of raw rubber latex of Phuoc Hoa Rubber Company fluctuated at 273-275 VND/TSC, down 10 VND/TSC compared to the end of last month. Latex in Gia Lai was purchased by Mang Yang Rubber Company for 240-250 VND/TSC, down 25 VND/TSC compared to the end of last month.

The world rubber market in September was affected by slowing demand in China, and falling crude oil prices, so manufacturers switched to using synthetic rubber derived from petroleum and fears of a global recession put pressure on the market.

At the Osaka Commodity Exchange (OSE) Japan, RSS3 rubber prices fluctuated after falling to 214.4 yen/kg on September 16, tending to increase again. At the end of September, the price of RSS3 rubber for delivery near term was at 224.3 yen/kg ($1.55/kg), down 1.8% compared to the end of last month, but up 14% over the same period last year.

The price movement of RSS3 rubber delivered at Osaka floor from June 2022 to present (Unit: Yen/kg). Source: Cf.market-info.jp

At the Shanghai Commodity Futures Exchange (SHFE), the RSS3 rubber price recovered after falling to 11,715 yuan/ton on September 13. At the end of September, the price of RSS3 rubber for delivery on the floor was close to 11,980 yuan/ton ($1.65/kg), up 1.7% compared to the end of last month, but down 7.9% compared to the same period last year.

Movement of rubber prices at SHFE from June 2022 to present (Unit: RMB/kg). Source: Shfe.com.cn

In Thailand, rubber prices tend to be similar. At the end of September, RSS3 rubber price was offered at 52.5 Baht/kg ($1.37/kg), down 1.7% compared to the end of last month and down 4.8% over the same period last year.

The price movement of RSS3 rubber delivered in Thailand from June 2022 to the present (Baht/kg). Source: Thainr.com

In India, the price of natural rubber in the key markets of Kerala state continued to increase as the purchasing volume of the stockists improved after the recent drop in prices. However, low demand from tire companies amid market expectations of increased output limited the upside momentum. 

The Import-Export Department forecasts that in the coming time, rubber prices are unlikely to increase sharply due to the high global supply of natural rubber, and mining activities are likely to accelerate and remain at a good level until January next year. In addition, the demand from tire companies may not be strong due to the global economic downturn.

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