EXPORTED RUBBER VOLUME INCREASES BY 2.8%, IMPORTS UP TO 45%

The average export rubber price in the first 11 months of 2020 reached 1,328.1 USD / ton, down 1.53% over the same period in 2019. China, India, and South Korea are the 3 largest rubber-consuming markets. of Vietnam in the first 11 months of 2020, accounting for 76.8%, 3.7%, and 2.1% of the market share, respectively.

In the opposite direction, the volume of imported rubber in December 2020 is estimated at 150 thousand tons with a value of $ 200 million, bringing the total volume and value of imported rubber in 2020 to 1.1 million tons and 1, USD 43 billion, up 45.1% in volume and 17.2% in value compared to 2019.

Cambodia (26.4% market share), South Korea (14.9%), and Japan (10.4%) are the three main rubber suppliers for Vietnam. Compared to the same period in 2019, the import value of rubber from the Korean and Japanese markets decreased by 11.4% and 11.7%, respectively, while the import from Cambodia increased by 139.5%.

Rubber prices increase and decrease in contrast to the end of 2020

The domestic raw rubber latex market in December 2020 decreased along with the trend in the world market. In Binh Phuoc, latex purchasing price decreased by 20 VND / kg to 320 VND / degree, rubber latex remained at 12,000 VND / kg. Latex prices in Dong Nai decreased by 1,000 VND / kg to 12,000 VND / kg.

After reaching a record high in November, rubber prices at the Osaka Commodity Exchange (OSE) fell back in the first half of December. Rubber prices fell due to uncertainty about the new economic stimulus package. There is a psychological pressure on the market in the US and new Covid-19 cases continue to increase in the US and Europe. At the end of the session on December 11, the benchmark contract for May 2021 reached 229.9 yen/kg, down 20.2 yen (equivalent to 8.8%) compared to the end of November. The prospect of the US economic stimulus package is brighter, rubber price increases slightly, reaching 244 yen/kg.

Physical rubber prices on the Asian market decreased in contrast with the futures market. Specifically, Thailand RSS3 on 16/12 at 2.31 USD / kg, down 0.19 USD / kg; STR20 Thailand at $ 1.60 / kg, down $ 0.06 / kg; SMR20 Malaysia at 1.58 USD / kg, down 0.08 USD / kg; SIR20 Indonesia at 1.59 USD / kg, down 0.08 USD / kg compared to December 2.

The Department of Agro-Processing and Market Development forecasts that the demand for rubber in the coming time will increase because the economy of China - the world's leading rubber consumer - will continue to improve, especially in 2021, thereby pushing the demand for natural rubber to increase, while the supply may be interrupted due to weather factors.

Forecast demand for rubber will increase as automakers push up production. Car consumption in China increased by 13% in September 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. According to the Yomiuri newspaper, Nissan Motor Co. plans to boost production in China by about 30% by 2021. China is emerging as a bright spot for the auto industry, amid the Covid-19 epidemic reducing demand in the US and Europe.

Demand for rubber in China has increased rapidly after local governments began to stimulate the use of small cars, prompting tire manufacturers to triple production.

Notably, in the latest report just released in mid-October, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) raised its forecast for global rubber consumption in 2020 by 67,000 tons to 12,611 million tons. Although that figure is still 8.4% lower than in 2019. The reason for the increase is the more optimistic view on the Chinese market after the recently released economic data.

China is forecasted to consume 1.38 million tons of rubber in quarter 4/2020, close to 1.4 tons of the same period last year; and the total volume of rubber imported into this country in 2020 will increase by 1.6% compared to 2019. Consumption in India will also increase following the economic recovery after the blockade period.

Meanwhile, the supply of natural rubber is expected to decline. According to ANRPC, natural rubber production this year is facing difficulties due to the epidemic, which causes scarce labor and makes transportation difficult. , causing world natural rubber production to decrease by 8.7% in the first 8 months of 2020, to 7.778 million tons, and is expected to decrease by 3% in the remaining 4 months of 2020.

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According to ANRPC, market movements in the short and medium-term depend heavily on the global economic recovery and the revival of the automobile and transportation industries. The rubber market will be strongly influenced by when and how effective the anti-Covid-19 vaccine will be. The demand for medical gloves continues to increase due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which drives the global demand for rubber to increase (according to the Thai Rubber Association). Besides, factories in China to restore production also create optimistic sentiment for the rubber market. The natural rubber price outlook is gradually brightening, due to the forecast demand for rubber gloves will increase while the rubber supply in the world is limited.

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