RUBBER INDUSTRY HAVE POSITIVE SIGNALS FROM EXPORT MARKET

Rubber export volume and value increased sharply

According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the rubber export volume in the first four months of 2021 increased to 79.6% and increased 111.6% in value over the same period in 2020, reaching 486 thousand tons, worth USD 817. Notably, rubber is the item with the strongest increase in export turnover among agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products in the first four months of 2021.

China is the main export market for Vietnamese rubber. According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in 2020, the total natural rubber exports to the Chinese market are estimated at 1.36 million tons, accounting for 77.9% of the total export volume in the latest update 04/22/2021). Particularly in the first quarter of 2021, China is still the largest rubber export market in Vietnam with an estimated 290,159 tons, accounting for 71.38% of the total export volume. Also in the first quarter of 2021, Vietnam's rubber exports to most markets increased strongly. Following the Chinese market, the amount of rubber exported to the Indian market in the first quarter of 2021 also increased sharply by 43.5% over the same period in 2020; to the US market increased by 71%; to the Korean market increased by 52%.

According to Mr. Vo Hoang An - Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Rubber Association - since early 2021, the average natural rubber price in the world has generally increased every month. China's economy recovered quite quickly, the acceleration of global vaccination coverage and the impact of the stimulus package worth 1.9 trillion USD of the US, and European countries in the context of rubber reducing natural rubber.

China is known as the world's factory, so not only Vietnam but almost the whole world depends on this market. The increase in rubber imports by China is the driving factor for the high rubber prices in the last months of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. China is the largest rubber-consuming country in the world, so the policies of this economy have a great impact on the global natural rubber market, not only Vietnam.

According to Mr. Vo Hoang An, in recent years, Vietnam's Rubber industry has been making efforts to diversify export markets, towards more "difficult" markets such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. However, due to the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic in host countries, the number of orders from these markets in 2020 and early 2021 have been decreasing. Meanwhile, the demand for natural rubber is continuously increasing in China thanks to effective early disease control.

Many factors positively support the rubber market in the short term

According to the International Rubber Research Group (IRSG), world rubber demand will face challenges of economic recovery and uneven vaccination deployment across regions around the world. . The IRSG also forecasts that the global consumption growth of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in 2021 will be 7% and 7.2%, respectively. Vehicle and tire sales will continue to have a great impact on the short-term growth of the industry, while growth from non-tire products is expected to increase thanks to demand for gloves and medical equipment.

In addition, in the April 2021 update report, the World Bank (WB) has forecasted that the average price of RSS3 rubber (SICOM) for the whole year 2021 is the US $ 2,250 / ton, then gradually recovers. about 2,260 - 2,280 USD / ton in the period of 2022 - 2030 and reaching about 2,300 USD / ton by 2035.

Mr. Vo Hoang Anh said that in the short term, the natural rubber market continues to receive support when the global natural rubber supply remains low in April due to the deciduous season. Progress of vaccination and vaccine distribution programs around the world. The appearance of the US $ 2,300 billion infrastructure investment plan, the Euro 750 billion economic recovery fund is part of the long-term budget package until 2027 with a total value of € 1,800 billion of the EU "The above factors help rubber prices to recover after adjusting at least until the second quarter of 2021, but still depend on the disease control situation of Covid-19", Mr. Vo Hoang An said.

Mr. Vo Hoang An also recommended that the Vietnamese rubber industry should strengthen the advantages from free trade agreements that Vietnam has been and will sign with countries in the region and the world. to promote the diversification of export markets and increase the added value of this industry.

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