RUBBER PRICE CONTINUES TO KEEP INCREASING TILL 2021
In the third quarter of 2021, raw rubber latex prices across the country will be forecasted that the price of rubber will continue to increase until the end of the first quarter of 2022.
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RUBBER PRICE CONTINUES TO KEEP INCREASING UNTIL THE END OF THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the third quarter of 2021, raw rubber latex prices across the country will not fluctuate much and it is forecast that the price of rubber will continue to increase until the end of the first quarter of 2022.
1. The main cause is the strong outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Rubber farms in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc, and Tay Ninh were affected by the social distancing, leading to the cessation of rubber tapping, causing a supply shortage.
The average export price of rubber reached 1,646 USD/ton, up 23% over the same period in 2020. Accumulated in 9 months, the average export price reached about 1,669 USD/ton, up more than 29% compared to the first 9 months of the year. last.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), the world demand for natural rubber in 2021 will increase by nearly 9% compared to 2020, to more than 14 million tons.
However, through preliminary statistics, the world's natural rubber output is only about 13.8 million tons, up 2% compared to 2020. Thus, the world will be short of 329,000 tons of natural rubber in 2021.
2. The increase in oil prices also led to an increase in the price of synthetic rubber.
Crude oil is an input material for the production of synthetic rubber, so when the price of oil increases, the price of synthetic rubber will also increase.
The above factors helped the price of domestic rubber in October increase again following the trend of the world market. Currently, the price of smallholder rubber latex purchased by businesses fluctuates around 300 - 345 VND/grade of latex.
In Binh Phuoc, the price of raw rubber latex purchased by Phu Rieng Rubber One Member Co., Ltd is at VND 303-343/grade of latex, an increase of VND 18/grade of latex compared to the end of last month.
In Binh Duong, raw rubber latex price purchased by Phuoc Hoa Rubber Joint Stock Company was at 343-345 VND/grade, an increase of 15 VND/grade compared to the end of last month.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Rubber - Plastic Association, said that the world economy is recovering while the rubber raw material supply markets such as Thailand, Indonesia... are still affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. -19 led to a shortage of rubber supply, thereby pushing up rubber prices.
In addition, in Vietnam, in the last months of the year, the construction site stops tapping latex, creating more conditions to push up rubber prices. "It is expected that rubber prices will increase until the end of the first quarter of 2022," said Mr. Quoc Anh.
Rubber export price in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 32.7% over the same period.
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The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that in the third quarter of 2021, the price of raw rubber latex across the country did not fluctuate much, fluctuating around 260-320 VND/grade of latex. Due to the strong outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic, many state-owned farms in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc, and Tay Ninh stopped tapping to implement social distancing.
In October 2021, prices tend to increase again following the uptrend of the world market. Currently, the price of smallholder rubber latex purchased by businesses fluctuates around 300-345 VND/grade of latex.
According to calculations from statistics of the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the third quarter of 2021, Vietnam exported 574.91 thousand tons of rubber, worth US$948.59 million, down 8.9% in volume. , but increased by 20.9% in value over the same period in 2020. Despite the decrease in rubber exports, Vietnam's rubber export turnover in the third quarter of 2021 still reached the highest level in many years. thanks to the sharp increase in rubber prices. Vietnam's rubber export price in the third quarter of 2021 reached an average of 1,650 USD/ton, up 32.7% over the same period in 2020.
Regarding the export market, Vietnam's rubber is mainly exported to markets in Asia, accounting for 88.5% of the total value of rubber exports of the country, with 509.69 thousand tons, worth USD 839.4 million, down 13.1% in volume, but up 15% in value over the same period in 2020. In the third quarter of 2021, the value of rubber exports to all regions increased. over the same period in 2020, in which the strongest increase was in the Americas with 106.3 percent, Europe in 96.4%, Africa in 89.8%, and Oceania in 128.8% over the same period last year. 2020.
In the world market, in the third quarter of 2021, rubber prices at key exchanges tended to decrease due to the shortage of shipping containers and the outbreak of Covid-19 in Asia, reducing expectations for the future. the economic recovery of the region. In October 2021, rubber prices recovered again in the context of the world economy gradually recovering, while the rubber supply decreased. Besides, the sharp increase in crude oil price is also a factor affecting rubber prices.
According to the latest report of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), the outlook for global natural rubber demand in 2021 will increase by 8.9% compared to 2020, to 14,116 million tons (up compared to 2020). with 14.1 million tons forecast last month). The revised outlook is due to better demand forecasts from China, India, Thailand and Vietnam in 2021.
Based on preliminary estimates from member countries, world natural rubber output will reach 13,787 million tons, up 1.4% compared to 2020 (down from 13.86 million tons forecast last month). . The data shows that the global demand for natural rubber in 2021 is 329 thousand tons higher than the output.
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