RUBBER PRICE IN EARLY OCTOBER IS GOING UP AGAIN

According to Osaka Commodity Exchange (OSE) and the Shanghai Commodity Exchange (SHFE) dated October 19, 2021, show rubber price movements. Specifically, the rubber price at 10:00 a.m. on OSE for the term of February 2022 increased to 225.1 JPY/kg, up 5.4 JPY, equivalent to 2.46%. In contrast, the rubber price for the November term on the SHFE decreased by 100 CNY to 13,515 CNY/ton, equivalent to 0.73%.

Currently, Japanese rubber prices have reached a 6-week high, as the JPY weakens against the USD, and the strengthening of the Tokyo stock market also boosts demand for risk assets. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the statement of the new Finance and Economic Minister of Japan about taking bold actions and policies to revive the economy which was affected by Covid-19 19 also contributed to pushing up rubber prices.

According to the Import and Export Department, in the first week of October 2021, rubber prices in the Asian market increased again due to the market's expectation that the stimulus measures by the new Japanese Government would quickly promote the growth of the market during economic recovery in this country. However, the upside momentum was still limited due to concerns about weakening demand in China when the country is facing a rather serious energy crisis.

It is forecasted that the world rubber price in the short term will fluctuate with low amplitude, the price will mainly remain at the current level, with little possibility of sudden increase or decrease. In the long term, factors such as the epidemic, supply chain, and the resilience of the world economy will determine the trend of rubber prices.

In Vietnam, at the beginning of October 2021, the price of raw rubber latex across the country did not fluctuate much. "In October 2021, the domestic price of rubber latex will remain stable around 280-330 VND / degree of latex", the Import-Export Department forecasted.

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According to information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the first nine months of 2021, rubber exports reached 1.3 million tons, worth 2.17 billion USD, up 17.1% in volume and 52 percent. 7% in value over the same period in 2020. The Vietnam Rubber Association said that the high growth of exports in recent years is due to the strong increase in imports from the Chinese market, accounting for 70% of Vietnam's total output.

According to the latest forecast of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global supply is estimated at 13.86 million tons, 306,000 tons short of demand. China can boost imports of 1.7 million tons to serve the demand in the last months of 2021 and 2 million tons for the off-season months (January to April 2022) to make up for the shortage in the country.

Mr. Huynh Van Bao - General Director of Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG), assessed that the situation of Covid-19 control in the world has gradually stabilized, production has recovered in most countries, helping rubber demand increase again. With many positive factors available, analysts believe that rubber prices will remain stable at current levels or increase further when other factors are more favorable.

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